Blazers hit the road to Golden State

Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to keep their playoff aspirations alive, the Portland Trail Blazers will hit the road for back-to-back games starting with tonight's showdown against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena.

Portland is eighth in the Western Conference standings, just a game behind No. 7 San Antonio, and will also visit Sacramento on the road swing. The Blazers are 17-15 away from the Rose Garden, where they handed the Kings an 88-81 setback on Tuesday. Brandon Roy led the way with 19 points and eight rebounds, while Andre Miller had 14 points and five assists for Portland, which has won four of its last five games.

"We didn't dominate this game like we wanted to come out, but we'll take the win," Roy said. "We've got to continue to improve. I thought our defense got better, but offensively, we weren't very good tonight."

Miller is averaging 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.28 steals since January 2. LaMarcus Aldridge had 13 points and seven boards in the recent victory, and is posting 19.5 points and 8.4 rebounds in the last 28 games for a Portland defense allowing the fewest points per game (95.1) of any team in the conference.

The Blazers have held their opponents under 100 points in 46 games this season, the most by any team in the West, and have won 41 straight contests when keeping the opposition to 88 points or less, including an 18-0 mark in 2009-10.

Golden State is playing out the string and is still searching for its first win this month, having dropped every test of a recent five-game road trip. It has lost 11 in a row away from Oakland, including Monday's 135-131 decision at New Orleans Arena.

Anthony Morrow made all six of his three-point tries on his way to 28 points for the Warriors, who got a career-high 28 points from Reggie Williams. Corey Maggette and Devean George each had 18 points in a losing effort.

"I thought we played good defense," Williams said. "I thought where it killed us was on the boards. I didn't do a good job rebounding. That definitely didn't help."

The Warriors will commence a four-game homestand Thursday versus the Blazers, Raptors, Lakers and Hornets, and own a 13-18 home mark. In injury news for Golden State, leading scorer Monta Ellis, who is averaging 25.7 ppg, has missed six straight games with a back issue and is questionable for tonight. Also, head coach Don Nelson is still seven wins away from breaking Lenny Wilkins' all-time record of 1,332 victories.

Portland and Golden State have split a pair of matchups so far this season, with each team holding serve as the host, while the Warriors have won 13 of the previous 18 matchups between the clubs. The Blazers have lost nine in a row and 12 of their last 16 visits to Oakland.

Portland last won the series, a 4-0 sweep, in 2002-03.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.